“They didn't know it was impossible, so they did,” says Mark Twain. Isolated polls put Donald Trump in the lead, but a one-time or constant average put him behind Hillary Clinton at the well-oiled media machine capable of quelling a number of state scandals concerning her. Alongside the polls, some tried their hand at more or less serious predictions. Let us choose three, more or less lightly and without taking sides, who had ensured that the troublemaker Donald would get mickey's tail.
Che who has been most talked about lately is Professor Allan Lichtman, who teaches Political History at theAmerican University from Washington and imagined at the start of the antepenultimate decade a procedure to determine the name of the winner of the most followed federal election.
In every presidential election since 1984, Lichtman successfully predicts the name of the winner
In each presidential election since 1984, Lichtman successfully predicts the name of the winner from a method examining all the elections between 1860 and 1980. The academic systematically retains thirteen "keys" almost all relating solely to the ruling party, which are assertions. of which at least eight must be found for the movement in power to remain there. If therefore at least six are false, the opposition to the Administration wins the votes. The keys relate for example to the occurrence or not of a major scandal during the presidency of the party in power, the successes or failures in diplomacy and as to military expeditions, the challenge or not of the party's candidate for the White House or again on the presence or absence of charisma of the two main candidates. This year, Allan Lichtman predicted the victory of Donald Trump while expressing reservations, the character being very atypical. An analytical choice which relates not so much to the candidates, but to the party in power, and which is not the only one to be fair ...
He opted for the sympathetic choice. This is Geda, a monkey who has already determined which team would win the European Football Cup. The very insightful primate had preferred to eat the banana placed on the Portuguese flag instead of the one on the banner of the other country in the final, France. This time, having to decide between the candidate given loser and his rival, he greedily kissed the effigy of the first, which, for once without a cap, however did not sport a banana as a haircut. At barely five years old, Geda got it right and therefore showed himself to be a wise old man.
Pastor says he had a vision in his three years cloistered in Iran
Finally, there is the prophetic choice of this pastor supported by Donald Trump while he was held in a jail in Iran, Saeed Abedini who has American and Iranian nationalities. In 2013, when he was still a businessman, the very little religious Trump criticized the neglect of this Christian official in the nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran and helped to further expose the prisoner's situation in the public arena, while he was still on good terms with the media. Abedini recently reported that while in prison, his wife had been financially supported by Trump who had offered her 10 dollars when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who was responsible for defending the rights of American nationals abroad, even more those of her compatriots unjustly detained, had never spoken to her. But if Abedini supports Trump, it is for another reason that he was sure of the latter's victory and had allowed himself to say it: the pastor claims that he had a vision during his three years, cloistered in Iran, in which he sat with a young, blond, blue-eyed man. Although Iranians are considered Aryans, the young man with this phenotype in question was not one of his Indo-European compatriots, less clear, of this Persia from which he risked never coming out, if he died there before the end of his sentence, but , he assures us, the one who was going to occupy the Oval Office, American like Lincoln, Disney or Buffalo Bill! In the vision he says he had and that he narrated to Huffington Post, a week ago, a voice assured him that this man would lead the American nation, and that he would be his friend! And, in 2015, while still in his Iranian jail, he allegedly watched the primary candidates on a cell phone he says he bought in the prison (the newspaper says it was unable to verify if that is plausible) and recognized on Facebook, as he looked at the profile of the candidates, the man of his vision. It was a photo of Trump in his youth. specify that American Protestants are divided on Trump, whose attitude may have shocked many of them.
Pollsters deceived by a reverse Bradley effect
Anyway, these predictions, more or less amusing, more or less sincere, have found confirmation.
Anyway, these predictions, more or less amusing, more or less sincere, have found confirmation. While the majority of the country's media, which rolled for the Democratic candidate, pounded their favorite Donald and planned a temper for him, even rejoiced at the fall of his business which suffered from his image at the risk that he would end his journey like a tramp (stray, in English), on the straw, bad polls and innuendos swept over him like water on a duck's feathers. Had the media forgotten the Bradley effect, named after this black candidate who was supposed to easily win the election for governor of California in 1982? Most respondents preferred to say that they would vote for him, for fear of being perceived as racist. This Tom Bradley effect has nothing to do with that of Bradley Manning recklessly divulging secrets, the voters questioned retained within themselves their choice in favor of the billionaire, perhaps even in their working relationships, more than one potential Trump voter by rubbing shoulders with another without daring to tell him what he was thinking. Here, we can assume an inverted Bradley effect, the respondents not daring to say what they really thought of the candidate for whom they were going to vote. This is an aspect of the silent majority, no one who really knows what the other is thinking tells them what they probably think of as themselves. The Donald was so disparaged that claiming a preference for him was a social risk.
As the stock markets falter, the world of finance will have to deal with the XNUMXth president elected by the voters in mid-December. Unless surprised, the newcomer to politics should be confirmed and propose a program that displeases the world of Wall Street, but also a large part of the political class including the Republicans, nicknamed the Elephant Party where he himself entered like an elephant in a porcelain store, with his freedom of tone, preferring to finance a third of his campaign out of his own pocket so as not to depend on any lobby. Will he be a tribune or a real captain capable of channeling and filtering his words to act at best, the last style he seems to borrow without worrying about adaptation? The mid-term elections of November 6, 2018 will give concrete feedback to voters, any tensions with the predominantly Republican Congress will also be interesting to follow. For now, he will discuss with the President of the European Council, Tusk. Donald Tusk.
Also read on this topic:
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- Is the election of Donald TRUMP the predicted catastrophe for the world?
- Donald Trump wins the presidential elections in the United States
- Election of Donald Trump: The sovereign will of a "silent majority" has been expressed
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