Vladimir Fedorovsky is an amazing character. Influential diplomat under Gorbachev, spokesman for the Perestroika, involved in the foreground in the process of Russia's exit from communism up to Yeltsin, he is the most published writer of Russian-Ukrainian origin in France, author of various best-sellers, and recently of the book « Putin, Ukraine: the hidden facesare ». An attentive and worried observer of the Ukrainian crisis, closely following the analyzes of Henry Kissinger, Hubert Védrine, Henry Guaino and Jean-Pierre Chevènement sharing the same convictions, he considers that it is urgent to act if we want to avoid a geopolitical catastrophe and this " devastating economic hurricane » announced by Jamie Dimon, boss of JP Morgan Chase, the largest American bank. However, according to Fedorovski, there are only three ways out of this crisis.
The first hypothesis is the world war. It has never been so close according to several seasoned experts, because there is no agreement, no serious contact, each developing its logic without looking at that of the other. Even at the height of the Cold War, there was continuous contact between the two blocs. In 1962, during the Cuban crisis, the American Secretary of State, Robert McNamara testified that everyone was concerned to save face and find a compromise, but this is not the case today. Moreover, sixty years ago, war was fearful: “ La key to all of this is that we had all known war”. Today, American leaders are saying publicly that they want Russia not to rise again, or at least putin out of the game, and the propaganda is adding to it. In the current context, it is assured escalation. How to come back to reason? What are the other options?
The second hypothesis is that the drastic sanctions succeed in making Russia back down. Some had threatened to destroy the Russian economy. For the moment, we are far from the expected result. A few days ago the Guardian explained that Russia was winning the economic war. The rise in the price of gas and oil provides Russia with 30% more revenue than last year. The repercussions of the sanctions do not paralyze the country which does not forget that, under Putin, the incomes have been multiplied by 10 compared to the Yeltsin era. With the sanctions, we can expect more than 15% inflation and a drop in purchasing power, but the Russians have endured much worse! In addition, current events are pushing for the reindustrialization of Russia, the end of its dependence on gas and oil, and the destruction of the very unpopular oligarchic system: currently 2% of Russians own 50% of the wealth. Russia is one-seventh of the globe; they had 25 million dead victims of the gulag and civil war; 27 million deaths by the Nazis: they have already experienced the Apocalypse and to think that they will give in because of a few sanctions, it is laughable.
The Americans say they want to constantly increase the pressure, but this is a capital mistake that will have gigantic repercussions. All this will cause a terrible famine in Africa, a crisis in Germany and other central European countries, which are very dependent on Russian gas and oil, and finally a deep recession in the world, including in the United States. At that point, perhaps, the Americans would change their strategy, but it would be too late. In the meantime, the turkey of the farce is Europe, divided, vassalized, submitted to NATO; the winner is China. Strengthened by close ties with Russia, which is thrown into its arms, it could dominate a large anti-Western coalition to which the Muslim world would certainly not be insensitive.
The third option, the only reasonable one, is to act as quickly as possible in favor of a genuine negotiation. This is the urgency expressed by Fédorovski, Kissinger, Védrine, Guaino and other experienced advisers who support Emmanuel Macron in his desire not to interrupt regular contacts with Putin. Everyone insists on the need to move quickly because the more destruction, exactions and deaths there are, the more difficult it will be to go back. The basis for this negotiation already exists partly thanks to the Israelis who pushed the file forward: Ukraine would accept a neutral status, which would be guaranteed internationally by the UN Security Council, the Russian language would be recognized as well as the ukrainian, there would be an exchange of prisoners and the problem of sovereignty over the Crimea and the Donbass would be postponed until later, and accepted in the meantime as a state of affairs. The right attitude is what Emmanuel Macron demands: no exclusion, no humiliation, de-escalation, no military solution. With a bit of goodwill, it would be possible to reach a rapid conclusion in everyone's interest, first and foremost the Ukrainian people who will need a Marshall Plan. How to save world peace? " On behalf of our children and grandchildren, it is urgent to act” said Vladimir Fedorovski, but will those who have the keys to all this in their hands hear him?
This article is published from Selection of the day.